I have a friend who has a great conspiracy theory. He believes conspiracy theories are generated in order to keep us from focusing on the real issues that need our attention. Simply put, conspiracy theories are a conspiracy. At least, that’s his theory.
The human mind is a funny thing. For creatures supposedly adept at finding ways to survive a sometimes violent and cruel world, we don’t handle facts well. We regularly engage in activities that we know to be either bad for our health or downright dangerous. Some of these activities become habits, like smoking, which are extremely difficult to break (been there).
Experts also tell us that our brains often fill in the blanks when we lack certain details. We perceive the world through what we see, hear and smell around us and combine this information with the knowledge of how things should function even if such things are beyond our immediate perception. This often affects how we interact with one another. Using a sort of unspoken language, we finish one another’s sentences, or get jokes before the punch line, or anticipate a pass from a teammate (or some greasy guy at the bar).
These frequent assumptions are partly why the brain is such an incredibly efficient and highly complex processing tool. It’s also why we find computers to be so boring and literal. We just assume they’re going to know what we want to do next. Computers, however, deal exclusively with accurate, factual information, which tends to expose the gaps in our thinking.
The assumptions our brains make are also an easy target for conspiracy theories. The latest theory being floated around the Internet (where everything is true) concerns the recent earthquakes in Haiti and Chile. It has been proposed that these earthquakes, and their magnitude, somehow indicate that a global cataclysm is afoot, and that these quakes are just signs of what is to come. Of course, the usual suspects, the governments of the world, are concealing this fact from us to prevent a worldwide panic.
If this sounds familiar, you've probably seen the movie 2012, which is based in part on the premise that the ancient Mayan calendar, which evidently stops at the year 2012, is a prediction of the end of the world. I have my own, less exciting theory about that. I think the guy in charge of the calendar just got tired of writing it and no one else wanted the job, so that was that. Pretty boring, but probably closer to the truth.
Like most conspiracy theories, the latest one doesn’t seem to be based on any hard statistical data. Somebody just took a few facts, matched them up with apocalyptic literature and connected the dots.
The thing is, as catastrophic as these events are, if you were to look at earthquake data recorded over the past four decades you would find there is virtually no pattern at all. Other than the fact that earthquakes happen every year and that the severity of these events often varies. The impact on human society, measured sadly by death toll, is largely attributed to the size of the population in proximity to the epicenter.
The number of quakes per year also varies. According to the United States Geological Survey there is anywhere from 1200 to 2000 quakes globally per year (if you can believe a goverment agency). This data does not take into account the fact that as populations expand and the technology of the measuring equipment improves we are likely to detect more quakes over time.
Once again, boring, but true.
The earthquake in Haiti was particularly tragic due to the combination of the strength of the quake, the close proximity to a densely populated city and buildings ill-equipped to withstand such an event.
What I find truly bothersome is the fact that while people waste precious energy inventing connections that don’t exist, people continue to struggle with devastation, disease and loss.
Knowing this doesn’t seem to quell the voices of conspiracy theorists, which feed primarily on fear and the accompanying adrenaline rush. Unfortunately, dumb-ass theories seem to have a longer shelf-life than humanitarian aid.
Wouldn’t it be more exciting if we could find some way to use our Swiss-cheese brains for something a little more useful? By thinking about solutions and not problems, by sharing the stories of those in need and mobilizing resources, rather than parking our arses in front of a screen looking for patterns that don't exist. Surely this would do more to lessen the impact of natural disasters than could possibly be achieved by inventing pointless conspiracies.
Just a theory.
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